Who will win the election?
Two SIUE professors collaborate with members of University of Illinois to predict winner of the Obama, McCain race
Brittany Zehr
Issue date: 10/9/08 Section: News
When the dust settled after the 2000 presidential election and George Bush was declared the winner, SIUE statistics professors Steve Rigdon and Ed Sewell decided to take a closer look at the election process.
In the 2000 election, Bush won the Electoral College vote, but Democratic candidate Al Gore won the popular vote. The controversy over recounts eventually led to the Supreme Court, where it was decided Bush was the 43rd president.
Sewell and Rigdon collaborated with Sheldon Jacobson of the University of Illinois to be the backbone of a study that allows them to accurately predict the election.
Rigdon said they rely on results of state-by-state polling rather than the popular vote to make a fairly accurate prediction. They take the margins of error from each state poll and put them together to analyze the probability of each candidate winning.
The degree of accuracy was demonstrated in the 2004 election when Rigdon announced to his class that President Bush would take the race with 286 votes, the exact number he won to take the election.
Rigdon, Sewell, Jacobson and a slew of students at the University of Illinois are focusing on the Obama-McCain race these days.
On Sept. 30, Rigdon said if the election was held that day, Obama's chances of winning stood at 99 percent. Over the course of two weeks this changed to McCain being the frontrunner with 60 percent. Currently, Obama is back at the top of the predictions with over a 99 percent chance to win.
"Things are hard to predict, especially the future," Rigdon said. "We always make these predictions as if the election were today."
Rigdon said there are many factors that could easily change each candidate's chances between now and Nov. 4.
Their Web site has up to the minute updates by Jacobson and University of Illinois students.
The site provides slider models and different scenarios concerning the election. According to the site, poll information is currently being gathered from Rasmussen, Survey USA and Quinipac, among others. These probabilities are then put into a series of instructions, also known as an algorithm. This determines the probability of the Electoral College votes each candidate will receive.
In the 2000 election, Bush won the Electoral College vote, but Democratic candidate Al Gore won the popular vote. The controversy over recounts eventually led to the Supreme Court, where it was decided Bush was the 43rd president.
Sewell and Rigdon collaborated with Sheldon Jacobson of the University of Illinois to be the backbone of a study that allows them to accurately predict the election.
Rigdon said they rely on results of state-by-state polling rather than the popular vote to make a fairly accurate prediction. They take the margins of error from each state poll and put them together to analyze the probability of each candidate winning.
The degree of accuracy was demonstrated in the 2004 election when Rigdon announced to his class that President Bush would take the race with 286 votes, the exact number he won to take the election.
Rigdon, Sewell, Jacobson and a slew of students at the University of Illinois are focusing on the Obama-McCain race these days.
On Sept. 30, Rigdon said if the election was held that day, Obama's chances of winning stood at 99 percent. Over the course of two weeks this changed to McCain being the frontrunner with 60 percent. Currently, Obama is back at the top of the predictions with over a 99 percent chance to win.
"Things are hard to predict, especially the future," Rigdon said. "We always make these predictions as if the election were today."
Rigdon said there are many factors that could easily change each candidate's chances between now and Nov. 4.
Their Web site has up to the minute updates by Jacobson and University of Illinois students.
The site provides slider models and different scenarios concerning the election. According to the site, poll information is currently being gathered from Rasmussen, Survey USA and Quinipac, among others. These probabilities are then put into a series of instructions, also known as an algorithm. This determines the probability of the Electoral College votes each candidate will receive.
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rachel lehcar
posted 10/31/08 @ 6:35 AM CST
cool site! thanks!! finally a valuable cool assignment! :)
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